Chasing the Crown: How the Chiefs Will Soar Over the Eagles in the Big Game (My Prediction)

By Alex Benjamin

GRAPHIC: GABRIELLA GUZZARDO ’23/THE HAWK

“I would take everything that I own, get it in cash, and put my money on the Kansas City Chiefs… I don't fully know about that Eagles' defense. They talk about them being a good defense, I'm not too sure. I think this Kansas City Pass game will expose what we thought we were going to be able to expose before some unfortunate circumstances. We'll see and like I said you got to get lucky to win a Super Bowl and they just got extremely lucky last week”

-Brandon Ayuik, San Francisco 49ers WR

That is a lot of talk for a team that just got absolutely crushed by the Eagles but I do think there is some truth in this quote.

I believe the Kansas City Chiefs will win. For the Chiefs to win, Patrick Mahomes will need to dominate the game. The Eagles can win if Jalen Hurts has a bad game, the Chiefs cannot if Mahomes doesn't perform. I believe Patrick Mahomes will accomplish something he hasn't done in his NFL career: have a start to finish dominant Super Bowl. For all of the fun on offense and all of the fantastic things Jalen Hurts can do, the Chiefs' biggest problem is the Eagle pass rush. But I feel this Philadelphia defense will be exposed on the back end due to the fact that they haven't faced great quarterbacks all year. The Philadelphia Eagles, for as dominant as the pass rush has been and as dominant as the defense has appeared to be, this is who they have faced this season…

By my count, the Eagles have faced four above-average quarterbacks this season: Jared Goff, Trevor Lawerence, Dak Prescott, and Aaron Rodgers. Dak put up 40, Rodgers put up 33, Goff put up 35, and Trevor put up 21. I don't think the Eagles are ready for the leveling up that playing Patrick Mahomes and this Chiefs offense requires, and I don't think the Eagles were helped by the fact that they now head into the Super Bowl having not played a good quarterback, let alone a great quarterback, since Christmas Eve versus the Cowboys, and they haven't played well against one since October 2nd against the Jags (Nick Wright).

Here's another point that speaks to how dominating the Eagles have been, but I'm not sure how much it really prepares them. In a long time, the Eagles have not had to fight for four complete quarters. They destroyed both the Giants and the 49ers. For the Eagles, the games were a joke. The Chiefs, on the other hand, recently came off a 60-minute brawl with Cincinnati and a game that was determined in the last minutes against Jacksonville, in part due to Patrick Mahomes' injury. I believe the Chiefs have more battle-tested and have faced far more difficult opponents. The Chiefs aren't afraid to get into a brawl, and when they want to, they can grind it out and control the clock. Andy Reid will come into this game prepared for everything, and if the Chiefs' offensive line can hold up just enough, I think the Philadelphia defense can be beaten.

Then there's the Jalen Hurts aspect. Since his injury, he has not looked comfortable throwing the football. He keeps telling us he's Hurt, but in this postseason, he's passed for fewer than 280 yards combined and has yet to throw for 160 yards in each of these games. He hasn't been a particularly dynamic runner in any of these games either.

When Mahomes is an underdog, he is 7-1 against the spread and 6-3 overall.

The Chiefs' defense is currently underappreciated. The Chiefs' defense showed massive improvement down the stretch against the pass. They need Snead back, but the Chiefs' number one corner went down on the third play of the game against a squad that had Chase and Higgins, and Cincinnati scored 20 points. Willie Gay, their second-best linebacker, was also injured in that game. In the game, the rookie corners were outstanding. Chris Jones, with respect to Mahomes, was the best player on the field in that game. The Eagles, on the other hand, have a fantastic offensive line, but I'm not sure even Jason Kelce can block Chris Jones one-on-one.

Did you know that Frank Clark, DE on the Chiefs, is third all-time in playoff sacks? Since coming over to the Chiefs, he has been underwhelming in the regular season but turns into a monster come playoff time. He is my game-changer player for this game.

The Chiefs also await the return of their wideouts. Juju will almost certainly play, and I believe Toney will as well. In mid-October, Hardman had a pelvic injury. His first game back was the AFC Championship game, however, he re-injured it and will not play. Marquez Valdes-Scantling looked excellent in the AFC title game. That was the greatest game of his career, but whether he can do it in consecutive weeks is a question. Mahomes will also be significantly healthier but a high ankle sprain does not heal in a matter of weeks. Mahomes demonstrated he could play on it without issue, but he won't be the same man jumping about and making magic happen.

He is a superb pocket passer, which is great, but he must rely on the rushing game, which was ineffective against the Bengals, and he must come up with a ton of quick strikes to get the ball to his players when they are moving.

Isiah Pacheco will likely be a target frequently. Jerick McKinnon didn't contribute much in the first two playoff games, but be on the lookout for him this Sunday. No one is a better master at elevating the play of those around them than Mahomes.

This is a difficult one to predict because any outcome is imaginable. It is possible that the Chiefs can't block Philly, the Chief's receivers don't come back healthy and nobody can get separation, Mahomes doesn't have time to throw and the Eagles' defensive line wins this game. Although it may not be a perfect replica of what Tampa Bay's defensive front accomplished versus Kansas City in LV, it may not be too different. Mecole Hardman is most likely out, Kadarius Toney is injured, and Travis Kelce will soon be facing the second-best defense in the NFL who have prepared for him for two weeks.

Considering Patrick Mahomes' desire to quickly get the ball out of his hands, the Eagles were ready for that against the 49ers. Brock Purdy is obviously not Patrick Mahomes, but the 49ers have more superior offensive weapons, and the Eagles' secondary should be able to prevent the fast throws from having a significant impact.

However, I believe the Mahomes/Hurts disparity is too great to overcome. The Eagles defense will be exposed early, and the Eagles will be forced to play a style they do not like to play, which is throwing the ball. Jalen Hurts can be found in one corner. It will be an uncomfortable position for the Eagles if he falls behind in the second half and needs to rally his team.

More often than any other NFL team, they had a larger lead at halftime. Due to their superior play this season, the Eagles have become the No. 3 most run-dependent team in games' second halves. Late in games, they don't ask Hurts to do much. In the closing minutes of close games, he rarely throws the ball and he never has to rally his squad after falling behind.

That strategy is not flawed in any way. It makes sense to put games away as soon as you can, control the clock, and run your No. 1 run offense on your opponent. That's perfectly OK. But it simply means that there haven't been many circumstances in which Jalen Hurts has the ball in his hands to pass and win for the Eagles in the closing minutes of games.

What about Patrick Mahomes, though? Out of 47 quarterbacks, he had the second-best yards/attempt and success rate when his team was down in the second half of games (Sharp). Mahomes is built for coming back. The Chiefs are built for it as well. They throw the ball at a ridiculous rate late in games, even if leading.

I would prefer to have the more experienced QB, who has also done far better in these situations, if this game is as close as the line suggests it would be in the second half. Mahomes will win his second and be put into the dynasty conversation. Mahomes is doing something we have never seen. He is just finishing his fifth NFL season and the only people we can compare him to are legends and ghosts. No current NFL Quarterback can compare to Mahomes.

70 % of the money is on the Eagles, but I’m taking the Chiefs. Even Magoo the Sea Lion is doubting the Chiefs (https://youtu.be/ghaYTQhb9k8). They are going to play the villain and it's going to be scary.

“You can dislike the Chiefs, you can disrespect the Chiefs, but you’re gonna have to deal with the Chiefs.”

Official Prediction: Chiefs +1.5; Chiefs 30, Eagles 27; Over 50.5

Best Bets coming soon…